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Insights into uk manufacturing - the real economy

Did the VAT cut work?

Jeegar Kakkad August 26, 2009 16:06

We've been having an internal debate about the VAT cut: did it work?

A study by the IFS says, yes it did, but I have some doubts about the study (I'll come back to the IFS work in another post).

A poll by PWC says no it didn't. And I have my doubts about that poll.

According the PWC survey, 88% of people said the VAT cut hadn't made them spend more; 5% didn't even know the VAT rate had been cut!

The VAT cut isn't like the scrappage scheme which provides a highly transparent, £2,000 incentive to buy a new car. But the benefit of the VAT cut on any given purchase is small and hidden.

The real effect of the VAT cut is cumulative and relative. It's cumulative because over the year, the cut will provide a boost to households' budgets. And that boost will lead to some additional spending. It's relative because buying things is cheaper this year than it will be next year, so might as well buy it now.

The PWC poll doesn't capture these effects and so you get 88% saying it hasn't affected their spending. That's probably not true. The real impact is likely to be bigger and hidden.

But that doesn't mean the VAT cut was £12bn well spent or that it should be extended.

 

A tale of two defence industries

Jeegar Kakkad August 24, 2009 12:54

UPDATE:

A colleague just sent me a Sunday Times article that trails the damning report [called the Grey Report] and has some pretty harsh words about the UK MoD:  

The Gray dossier says that nimble enemies such as the Taliban “are unlikely to wait for our sclerotic acquisition systems to catch up”.

“The problems, and the sums of money involved, have almost lost their power to shock, so endemic is the issue,” writes Gray. “It seems as though military equipment acquisition is vying in a technological race with the delivery of civilian software systems for the title of ‘world’s most delayed technical solution’. Even British trains cannot compete.”

In corporate life, no enterprise would persist with a 12-year-old strategy without at least reevaluating it fully on a regular basis,” he writes. “Few who would expect to prosper would even try to do so.”

**********

The FT has two articles on the defence inudstry today, both of which tell two different stories about government industrial policy. But the two stories provide a key lesson for any government looking to take a more active role in supporting manufacturing.

The first article, U-turn on damning military report, tells of how the government has consented to publishing a report which lambasts the procurement practices of the MoD.

The second article, Defence industry welcomes anti-terror wishlist, has senior defence executives welcoming the long-term transparency from government about the counter-terrorism technoligies it wants developed in the next decade. Now industry knows what the officials want, and intelligence services will get the kit they need.

Where's the lesson?

Well, not too long ago, the MoD published the Defence Industrial Strategy. The DIS was regarded as a critical breakthrough in relations between the MoD and industry becuase it provided long-term transparency of the military's equipment needs. This long-term clarity was undermined by budgeting problems (e.g. assessing and manageing the cost of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the MoD's difficulty in accounting for equipment, poor procurement practices).

Yes industry needs clarity about what government will need in the long run. But industry also needs to be confident that the budgets will be there to back up its demand.

Uncertainty in the UK defence market pushed some companies to the relatively more stable and much larger US market (and competing in US military markets often requires a presence in the country anyway).

It's one of the reasons why the controversial report on the MoD suggests giving the military a 10 year budget. But as the FT suggests:

"The UK's security budget, running at about £3bn a year, has risen rapidly since 2001 though it could come under pressure as the Treasury looks for spending cuts across government. With the US spending about 10 times as much on homeland security, Whitehall says the potential for exports provides further incentive for British companies."

So, sure the US has export potential. But just like in the defence markets, that potential will evaporate if uncertainty about the UK security budget ultimately pushes companies abroad in search of more stable markets.

Acitivism requires governments to make decisions and commit to them with sufficient resources. Anything short of that damages industry and hurts the UK's competitiveness.

 

Week in Review - 21 August 2009

Chanderika Chouhan August 21, 2009 11:45

Week in Review  

  Inflation

CPI inflation came in stronger than expected in July and held steady at 1.8%. RPI inflation edged up to -1.4%, from -1.6% in June.

Retail sales growth  

Retail sales volumes grew by 1.2% in the three months to July, compared with the previous three month, up from 0.9% in June.

Public sector borrowing

Public sector net borrowing was £8bn in July, the largest net borrowing figure for July since records began in 1993. The Treasury forecasts net borrowing will reach £175bn in the current financial year.

MPC minutes The MPC voted 6-3 to expand the QE programme by £50bn, with the dissenting members voting for an injection of £75bn. This was the first non-unanimous vote since February.

 

 

 

 

A-Levels: Don't Panic?

Nigel Fletcher August 20, 2009 16:55

It’s the third Thursday in August, so it must be A-Levels day.  The annual rituals are now well-established: From before dawn, newspaper columnists and education experts have taken their places in television and radio studios for the annual “Dumbing Down Debate” (more of a pantomime, really – “Oh yes they are!”  - “Oh, no they’re not!”).   Many will not have waited for the actual results, and already published their denunciation of the quality of exams in the weekend press.  Others will wait until tomorrow to dust off tired clichés about how the “all-must-have-prizes” mentality is “devaluing” the “gold standard”.   

Proper analysis of the results inevitably gets rather buried by the flurry of pictures of grinning, leaping teenagers (do drama students rehearse for it?).  However, it is worth looking beyond the overall pass rate at the trends which the national data from the Joint Council for Qualifications reveals. For the second year running, there has been an increase in the number of students taking science and maths subjects, whilst as a percentage of the overall exam entries they have remained fairly constant.  This is welcome news for manufacturers in dire need of such skills, and there are encouraging signs in the AS figures that the numbers will continue to increase next year.  But there is a long way to go to reverse the decline that these subjects have suffered in recent decades, and at this rate it will take a long while to return even to the levels of ten years ago. 

Of more concern this year is the large number of students who will fail to find a place at university due to the increased demand outstripping the funded places available.  The Government announced just 10,000 extra places as an emergency measure, and failed to provide the extra teaching funds even for these.  As a result, many leading universities have refused to take up their extra allocation, believing that the quality of courses would suffer if existing funds have to be spread more thinly. A big risk in the current recession is that companies will lose vital skills when they are forced to lay off staff.  It is an equal danger now that young people interested in studying subjects vital to the economy are also being lost as they fail to find university places. 

The Higher Education Minister David Lammy has today said disappointed students “shouldn’t panic” and that there is “a broad range of options open to them including clearing, reapplying for next year or seeking work experience “.  Whilst there are of course valuable alternatives, how many potential engineers and high-skilled workers can we afford to see spending the next year backpacking round the world, flipping burgers, or enrolling on other degrees instead?

 

Credit insurance - latest update

Lee Hopley August 20, 2009 15:19

A couple of surveys from EEF this year have show that the reduction and withdrawal of credit insurance has been a major problem for a majority of manufacturers.  We lobbied hard in advance of the Budget in April and HM Treasury listened and put in place a government backed top up scheme for companies that had had cover reduced. 

Take up of the initial scheme was low, so again government listened, and the eligibility criteria for the scheme were backdated from April 2009 to October 2008.  Further changes to the scheme have been announced today.  

  • The price of the top-up cover will be cut from 2% to 1%.
  • The £20,000 lower limit on cover will be removed.
  • The upper limit on top-up cover will be doubled to £2 million. 

No corresponding increase in the money available for the scheme has been announced - but as we said last time the £5bn announcement was more headline grabber than assessment of need.  Any further expansion of the scheme that helps manufacturers is obviously a good thing, given some of the risks associated with a reduction in cover.  It should provide some breathing space for companies starting to see a trickle of orders come through.  But those that have seen a complete withdrawal of credit insurance will still be stuck.

The government has tried to get this off the ground and increase uptake, now we need to see similar moves for companies facing problems with credit insurance on exports. 

 

 

Skills: What or where?

Nigel Fletcher August 14, 2009 16:39

The Times Education Supplement has the news today that Lord Mandelson is considering giving Regional Development Agencies responsibility for drawing up skills strategies, which would then be implemented by the new Skills Funding Agency (SFA). 

Our Head of Economic Policy Lee Hopley has responded to the report here. Many manufacturers, and employers as a whole, will despair at yet another structural reorganisation in a system already in need of stability and simplification.  Such changes are happening with increasing frequency, it seems: the Learning and Skills Council is being abolished after less than ten years; the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills lasted less than two; and now the Skills Funding Agency is being reformed before it has even been formed in the first place. 

Nevertheless, the debate over whether skills policy and funding should be set on a regional or sector-specific basis is one worth having.  It has always been our view that it makes more sense to look at specific sectors of industry, rather than on regional geography. 

There may be some areas of manufacturing that are defined principally by their region (cheese-making, perhaps?) - but is there a peculiarly North Eastern way of welding an aeroplane fuselage?  Probably not.  British companies operating in the same sector will have similar skills needs, regardless of where in the UK they are based – the ‘what’ is more important than the ‘where’.

Lord Mandelson’s intervention looks set to spark renewed debate on this issue, and we can expect some interesting responses from Sector Skills Councils, which would be the main losers under the proposed scheme.  By all means let's have that debate - but let's make sure that whatever the outcome, the system stands at least some chance of surviving an election and being fit for purpose for more than a couple of years.

 

The taxman's R&D trap

Jeegar Kakkad August 14, 2009 13:09

HMRC excel at building better mouse traps. 

Although it's only part of innovation, investing in R&D is pretty important for UK manufacturers.

Their R&D spending accounts for 75% of all UK business investment in R&D. And yet, the tax man has come along, suggesting that true R&D can't involve production, and so refusing to give tax credits to legitimate R&D claims.

Since early 2008, HMRC have been using a fairly strict - and incredibly appalling - interpretation of government guidelines on what does and doesn't qualify for the R&D tax credit. In particular, HMRC have used the following rule to argue that any R&D that results in anything being sold is production activity and therefore does not qualify:

"Activities which do not directly contribute to the resolution of scientific or technological uncertainty include... the production and distribution of goods and services”

My question for HMRC: why have give businesses an R&D tax credit if not to help them finance R&D to develop new products, processes and services. It's what the government's guidelines say:

“A project which seeks to, for example: 

  •  
    • extend overall knowledge or capability in a field of science or technology; or
    • create a process, material, device, product or service which incorporates or represents an increase in overall knowledge or capability in a field of science or technology; or
    • make an appreciable improvement to an existing process, material, device, product or service through scientific or technological changes; or
    • use science or technology to duplicate the effect of an existing process, material, device, product or service in a new or appreciably improved way (e.g. a product that has exactly the same performance characteristics as existing models, but is built in a fundamentally different manner),

will therefore be R&D.”

Creating products and services is inherent to three of the four examples.

No UK-based manufacturing company could survive if it conducted R&D to create a product or service (that represents…etc…) but was not intended or did not have the prospect for supply to customers.

BIS and HMT: sort out the tax man...UK manufacturers have a recovery to invest in.

(Hat tip to Ben Sampson at Professional Engineering for the story and the pic.)

 

Tags:

Economy

Week in Review - 14 August 2009

Jeegar Kakkad August 14, 2009 10:13

Week in Review

 
House Prices

The headline price balance rose 9.5 points to -8.1 in July, following last month's 25.4 point rise and the sales-to-stocks ratio rose from 22.5% to 25.1% on the month.

Trade

The goods trade deficit rose to £6.5bn in June from £6.2bn in May, as imports of oil rose.

Labour market

Claimant count unemployment rose by 24,000 in July, while the ILO rate rose to 7.8% with 2.44 million unemployed.

BoE August Inflation Report The recovery is likely to be protracted. Inflation will be volatile in the short-run, but the medium-term risks are balanced. Given market expectations for interest rates and an additional £50bn in QE, the Bank expects inflation to be near its target in two years.

 

Green light with some yellow spots

Lee Hopley August 13, 2009 09:30

This is how Mr Liikanen, Finish Central Bank governor, recently described the more positive economic picture emerging in Europe - presumably preferring a traffic light analogy to the usual 'green shoots'. There was some more good news from the eurozone today - GDP across the 16 economies contracted by a less than expected 0.1% in the three months to June. And after a year in recession, both Germany and France expanded by 0.3% over the same period - beating expectations by some margin.

Several commentators were quick to declare the recession over in the eurozone's two largest economie, with some going so far as to predict a strong rebound in growth in the third quarter. This could potentially be good news for UK manufacturers - a recovery in demand in the UK's biggest market could be just the boost manufacturing needs.

However, others are taking a more cautious view of the numbers. Both France and Germany have put in place significant stimulus packages this year, supporting both industry and domestic consumption - the generous cash for bangers scheme and support for short-time working being good examples. Some economists need a bit more convincing that the eurozone is ready for these measures to be withdrawn. With the ECB also formulating its exit strategy, the rug could yet be pulled from under some of the factors that supported growth in the past few months.

 

UK car scrappage scheme is working

Jeegar Kakkad August 11, 2009 09:18

It's been three and a half months since the car scrappage scheme was introduced and already we're seeing some signs of success.

So far, 154,927 orders have been placed. And because the government funding is enough for 300,000 new cars, that's the halfway mark.

Is that a sign of success?

Yes, and not just because half the money has been used.

I'm not looking at what individuals are doing. The 150k in new car orders represents artificial demand. Some of it was brought forward from the next couple of years, some of it new demand from people who don't mind owning a 10 yr old car.

The real sign of success comes from the car companies themselves. Take Nissan, for example. Not only are they advertising for the government subsidised scrappage scheme, their advertisements go further than the gov't offer: Nissan is willing to offer £2,000 on trade-ins on cars 8 years or older. Citroen and other dealers are also offering their own versions of the scrappage scheme, plus additional sweeteners?

What's the big deal? Well, the commentariat have been blathering on about 'What happens when the government scheme ends? Will the bottom fall out of the market?'

The answer is not likely. If car companies are healthy enough to offer their own more generous scrappage schemes, then why should it matter what happens when the government scheme ends in December?

More importantly, the sweeteners to buy new cars mean one of two things: either the companies are desparate and are cannabilising their own future sales (e.g. GM and Chrysler in 2008) or they are in a more stable position to offer the cash incentives. All signs point to the latter, rather than the former.

We're no longer talking about extended shutdowns and short-time working. New orders and extended shifts are the words being used in the same sentences as the big car makers.

And that means more about the contibution of the scrappage scheme than any numbers ever will. 

 

Disclaimer
This is an informal blog about manufacturing and the economy written by EEF's policy and representation staff. While it is written from an EEF perspective, contributions should not be taken as formal statements of EEF policy, unless stated otherwise. Nor does it cover all the issues on which we campaign - you can check these out in more detail at our main site.

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EEF helps manufacturing businesses evolve and compete.  We provide business services that make them more efficient and management intelligence that helps them plan.  Our work with government encourages policies that make it easy for them to operate, innovate and grow.

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