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Week in Review - 17th February, 2012

Felicity Burch February 17, 2012 09:48

↓ Consumer prices CPI inflation fell to 3.6% in January, from 4.2% in December. This is partly resulting from the fact that last January’s VAT rise – which pushed up inflation in 2011 – has now been fully accounted for in the statistics.
   
↓ Labour market statistics The number of people in employment increased by 60,000 in the three months to December, mainly due to an increase in the number of part-time employees. The ILO measure of unemployment rose by 48,000, though this was the smallest quarterly increase since June 2011. The ILO unemployment rate was stable at 8.4%. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment – which records the number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance – rose for the eleventh consecutive month, though the claimant count rate was unchanged at 5.0%.
   
↔ EEF Pay Settlements The three-month average pay settlement was 2.4% in January, down slightly from the month earlier. This is in line with the broadly stable settlements seen throughout 2011, and – given that January is one of the key months for settlements – it may suggest that last year’s elevated inflation has not had an undue influence on pay deals. Official statistics showed that across the whole economy, pay rose by 2.0% in the three months to December and by 1.4% for manufacturing. Excluding bonuses, pay was up 2.0% across the economy and by 1.8% in manufacturing.  
   
↑ Retail sales The value of retail sales in increased by 4.4% between January 2011 and January 2012. Sales volumes increased by 2.0% over the same period.
   
The week ahead
 
Tue 21st: Public sector finances
Wed 22nd: MPC minutes
Fri 24th: GDP (2nd estimate for 2011q4); Business Investment
 

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Week in Review - 20th January, 2012

Felicity Burch January 20, 2012 11:21

↓ Consumer prices CPI inflation fell to 4.2% in December, and is already some way down from its peak of 5.2% seen in September. RPI has also fallen back, and now stands at 4.8%. Downward pressure on inflation came from petrol, gas and clothing. There was some upward pressure from landline and mobile phone charges.  
   
↓ Labour market statistics The number of people in employment increased by 18,000 in the three months to November, which was driven by increased self-employment. The ILO measure of unemployment rose by 118,000, remaining at its highest level since 1994. The ILO unemployment rate rose to 8.4%. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment – which records the number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance – rose for the tenth consecutive month, though the claimant count rate was unchanged at 5.0%. 
   
↔ EEF Pay Settlements The three-month average pay settlement was 2.4% in December, this was down slightly from 2.5% the month before, but was based on only a small number of settlements, Average settlement levels remained stable throughout 2011, between 2.4% and 2.6%. Official statistics showed that across the whole economy, pay rose by 1.9% in the three months to November and by 1.5% for manufacturing. Excluding bonuses, pay was up 1.9% across the economy and by 1.6% in manufacturing.  
   
↑ Retail sales The volume of retail sales was 2.6% higher in December 2011 than in December 2010. The value of retail sales increased by 6.2% over the same period, reflecting a 2.4% increase in prices.
   
The week ahead
 
Tue 24th: Producer Prices Indices
Wed 25th: GDP (2011 Q4 Preliminary estimate)
Thu 26th: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence
 

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Week in Review - 15th July, 2011

Felicity Burch July 15, 2011 09:20

 
↓ UK Trade The seasonally adjusted deficit on trade in goods widened to £8.5bn in May, compared with £7.6bn in April. Although exports grew quickly and the value of exports hit a record level import growth outpaced this. 
   
↓ Inflation CPI inflation and RPI inflation fell in June, though both remain elevated, with CPI inflation at 4.2% and the RPI measure at 5.0%. The strongest downward pressure on CPI came from recreation and culture – partly as a result of early summer sales on electronic goods. Upward pressures came from food prices, which rose by 6.9% over the year, and fuel prices, which rose by 15.1%.  
   
↑ Labour Market Statistics The number of people in employment rose by 50,000 in the three months to May, while the ILO measure of unemployment fell by 26,000. The ILO unemployment rate remained stable, at 7.7%. However, the Claimant Count measure of unemployment – which records the number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance – rose again to 1.5 million in June, up 24,500 since May. This pushed the claimant count rate up to 4.7%. 
   
↑ EEF Pay Settlements The three-month average pay settlement was 2.5% in June and, following revisions to the data for May, has now been unchanged since April. The monthly average, however, crept up from 2.6% to 2.8%. In the three months to June, 16.7% of pay settlements were between 0.0 and 2.0%, up a little from the month earlier.  
   
The week ahead
 
Wed 20th: MPC minutes
 
Thu 21st: Public Sector Finances; Retail Sales; Trends in Lending
 
 

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This is an informal blog about manufacturing and the economy written by EEF's policy and representation staff. While it is written from an EEF perspective, contributions should not be taken as formal statements of EEF policy, unless stated otherwise. Nor does it cover all the issues on which we campaign - you can check these out in more detail at our main site.

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