EEF Economics Blog | All posts tagged 'week in review'

Week in Review - 16th March, 2012

Felicity Burch March 16, 2012 14:20

↔ Labour market statistics	The number of people in employment increased by 9,000 in the three months to January, as an increase in the number of part-time employees outweighed a fall in full-time employment. The ILO measure of unemployment rose by 28,000, though this was the smallest quarterly increase since May 2011. The ILO unemployment rate was stable at 8.4%. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment – which records the number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance – has now risen every month for a year, though the claimant count rate was unchanged from the previous month at 5.0%.

The week ahead

Tue 20^th: Consumer prices
Wed 21^st: Pay Bulletin
Thu 22^nd: MPC minutes

Tags: week in review, labour market statistics, economic data

Week in Review - 2nd March, 2012

Felicity Burch March 02, 2012 09:55

↔ GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index	The consumer confidence index remained stable at the low-level of -29. Although consumers felt that the climate for major purchases was less positive, this may be a seasonal factor following the January sales. It was also offset by an improvement in sentiment about the state of the economy and personal finances over the coming year.

↓ Manufacturing PMI	The manufacturing PMI fell back a little, to 51.2, but remained above the 50-level associated with expansion in the sector. Production increased for the third month in a row, and orders remained stable, with weakness in Europe offset by increased demand in the US and Asia.

The week ahead

Thu 8^th: MPC decision
Fri 9^th: Index of Production; UK Trade; Producer Price Index

Tags: consumer confidence, manufacturing pmi, pmi, week in review, economic data

Week in Review - 24th February, 2012

Felicity Burch February 24, 2012 13:27

↑ Public sector finances	The monthly current budget showed a surplus of £11.8bn in January 2012 as tax receipts were bolstered by self-assessment tax returns. Net debt was £988.7bn, equivalent to 63% of GDP compared with 58.3% a year ago.

↑ MPC minutes	The bank rate was held at 0.5% and the asset purchase programme was extended by £50bn to £325bn. All nine members of the monetary policy committee voted to extend the asset purchase programme. Two members voted for a £75bn increase.

↔ GDP (2^nd estimate)	ONS confirmed its estimate that GDP contracted by 0.2% in the final quarter of 2011. Business investment acted as a drag on growth, but net trade provided a positive contribution due to increased exports to non-EU countries.

↓ Business Investment	Business investment contracted by 5.6% in the final quarter of 2011. Manufacturing investment also fell, by 2.4%.

The week ahead

Thu 1^st: Manufacturing PMI

Tags: public sector finances, mpc minutes, gdp, business investment, economic data, week in review

Week in Review - 17th February, 2012

Felicity Burch February 17, 2012 09:48

↓ Consumer prices	CPI inflation fell to 3.6% in January, from 4.2% in December. This is partly resulting from the fact that last January’s VAT rise – which pushed up inflation in 2011 – has now been fully accounted for in the statistics.

↓ Labour market statistics	The number of people in employment increased by 60,000 in the three months to December, mainly due to an increase in the number of part-time employees. The ILO measure of unemployment rose by 48,000, though this was the smallest quarterly increase since June 2011. The ILO unemployment rate was stable at 8.4%. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment – which records the number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance – rose for the eleventh consecutive month, though the claimant count rate was unchanged at 5.0%.

↔ EEF Pay Settlements	The three-month average pay settlement was 2.4% in January, down slightly from the month earlier. This is in line with the broadly stable settlements seen throughout 2011, and – given that January is one of the key months for settlements – it may suggest that last year’s elevated inflation has not had an undue influence on pay deals. Official statistics showed that across the whole economy, pay rose by 2.0% in the three months to December and by 1.4% for manufacturing. Excluding bonuses, pay was up 2.0% across the economy and by 1.8% in manufacturing.

↑ Retail sales	The value of retail sales in increased by 4.4% between January 2011 and January 2012. Sales volumes increased by 2.0% over the same period.

The week ahead

Tue 21^st: Public sector finances
Wed 22^nd: MPC minutes
Fri 24^th: GDP (2^nd estimate for 2011q4); Business Investment

Tags: cpi, labour market statistics, eef pay settlements, retail sales, week in review

Week in Review - 10th February, 2012

Felicity Burch February 10, 2012 10:47

↑ MPC decision	The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee announced plans to extend its asset purchase scheme from £275bn to £325bn, due to a weak near-term growth outlook and expectations for inflation to fall back. The bank rate was maintained at 0.5%.

↑ Index of production	The Index of Production for December was stronger than expected, showing that manufacturing grew by 1.0% over the month.

↑ UK Trade	The UK’s total trade deficit narrowed to £1.1bn in December and the trade in goods deficit narrowed to £7.1bn. This was driven by both a fall in imports and an increase in exports: in the fourth quarter total goods exports hit a record high.

↓ Producer prices	In the year to January manufacturers’ input prices rose by 7.0%, this was the lowest annual rise since November 2009.

The week ahead

Tue 14^th: Consumer prices
Wed 15^th: Labour Market Statistics
Thu 16^th: EEF Pay Bulletin
Fri 17^th: Retail sales

Tags: mpc, interest rates, qe, index of production, iop, uk trade, exports, producer prices, week in review

Week in Review - 3rd February, 2012

Felicity Burch February 03, 2012 09:43

↑ GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index	The consumer confidence index improved to a six-month high, though at -29 it remains depressed. The biggest improvement was in the sub-index for consumers’ expectations of the next twelve months. However, there is little evidence from official data that this has started to feed through to economic activity yet.

↑ Manufacturing PMI	January’s PMI moved back above the 50-level associated with expansion to 52.1, an eight-month high. Output and new orders were both up, though growth in export orders softened slightly.

The week ahead

Thu 8^th: MPC interest rate decision; Index of production; UK trade;
Fri 9^th: Producer prices

Tags: consumer confidence, pmi, week in review, economic data

Week in Review - 27th January, 2012

Felicity Burch January 27, 2012 09:40

↓ GDP	GDP contracted by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011. Within this, manufacturing output contracted by 0.9%, though this was largely the result of a particularly weak October. The data implies that output in the sector may have ticked up a little in December.

↔ MPC minutes	The minutes from the MPC meeting showed that members voted unanimously to maintain the base rate at 0.5% and size of the asset purchase programme at £275 billion. However, some members thought a future extension to the asset purchase programme was likely to be necessary.

The week ahead

Wed 1^st: Manufacturing PMI

Tags: week in review, gdp, mpc minutes

Week in Review - 20th January, 2012

Felicity Burch January 20, 2012 11:21

↓ Consumer prices	CPI inflation fell to 4.2% in December, and is already some way down from its peak of 5.2% seen in September. RPI has also fallen back, and now stands at 4.8%. Downward pressure on inflation came from petrol, gas and clothing. There was some upward pressure from landline and mobile phone charges.

↓ Labour market statistics	The number of people in employment increased by 18,000 in the three months to November, which was driven by increased self-employment. The ILO measure of unemployment rose by 118,000, remaining at its highest level since 1994. The ILO unemployment rate rose to 8.4%. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment – which records the number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance – rose for the tenth consecutive month, though the claimant count rate was unchanged at 5.0%.

↔ EEF Pay Settlements	The three-month average pay settlement was 2.4% in December, this was down slightly from 2.5% the month before, but was based on only a small number of settlements, Average settlement levels remained stable throughout 2011, between 2.4% and 2.6%. Official statistics showed that across the whole economy, pay rose by 1.9% in the three months to November and by 1.5% for manufacturing. Excluding bonuses, pay was up 1.9% across the economy and by 1.6% in manufacturing.

↑ Retail sales	The volume of retail sales was 2.6% higher in December 2011 than in December 2010. The value of retail sales increased by 6.2% over the same period, reflecting a 2.4% increase in prices.

The week ahead

Tue 24^th: Producer Prices Indices
Wed 25^th: GDP (2011 Q4 Preliminary estimate)
Thu 26^th: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence

Tags: cpi, labour market statistics, eef pay settlements, retail sales, week in review

Week in Review - 16th December, 2011

Felicity Burch December 16, 2011 12:19

↓ Consumer prices	After hitting 5.2% in September CPI has begun to fall back, and was 4.8% in November. RPI also fell, to 5.2%. The largest downward pressures to the change in CPI annual inflation between October and November came from food, petrol, clothing and furniture, household equipment & maintenance. Upward pressure came from increases in the cost of domestic heating and sales of alcohol.

↓Labour market statistics	The number of people in employment fell by 63,000 in the three months to October, while the ILO measure of unemployment rose by 128,000, remaining at its highest level since 1994. The ILO unemployment rate stayed at 8.3%. The Claimant Count measure of unemployment – which records the number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance – rose for the ninth consecutive month, though the claimant count rate was unchanged at 5.0%.

↔ EEF Pay Settlements	The three-month average pay settlement was 2.5% in November, up slightly from 2.4% in October. There has been little change in the level of settlements throughout 2011: they have remained between 2.4% and 2.6% all year.

↓ Retail sales	Compared with October 2011, retail sales volumes decreased by 0.4% and sales values decreased by 0.1% in November. However, retail sales volumes increased by 0.7% and sales values increased by 4.6% over the year.

The week ahead

Wed 21^st: Public Sector Finances; MPC minutes
Thu 22^nd: Q3 GDP final cut; balance of payments; business investment
Fri 23^rd: Index of services; productivity

Tags: week in review, consumer prices, labour market statistics, pay settlements, retail sales

Week in Review - 9th December, 2011

Felicity Burch December 09, 2011 13:21

↓ Index of production	The Index of Production showed that manufacturing output fell by 0.7% in October.

↔ MPC rate decision	The MPC maintained the Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the asset purchase programme at £275 billion. The latest round of asset purchases (announced in October) will take another two months to complete.

↑UK trade	The UK’s trade in goods deficit narrowed to £7.6bn in October, as UK goods exports rose to record levels, and imports fell back.

↑ Producer price index	In the year to November 2011 input prices for manufacturers rose by 13.4%. This was the lowest annual increase since December 2010. Over the same period, output prices rose by 5.4%.

The week ahead

Tue 13^th: Consumer prices
Wed 14^th: Labour market statistics
Thu 15^th: EEF Pay Bulletin; Retail Sales

Tags: index of production, mpc decision, uk trade, producer prices, economy, economic data, week in review

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