Is the economy out of the recessionary woods?
Tomorrow's GDP estimate for Q3 will give us a clue, but the Chancellor and the Bank Governor both appear to have some concerns about the strength of the recovery.
King's statements yesterday suggest more QE could be on the cards in November. Darling's speach to the City suggests understands the need to extend some of his fiscal stimulus through next year.
We think the estimate tomorrow will show modest growth - about 0.1% in the third quarter. (The consensus call is for 0.2%.)
But while the headlines will be full of 'return to growth' and 'is the recession over stories', we're looking ahead to the first quarter of next year.
The problem for Darling is that the car scrapage funding and the VAT cut will run out in December. That should make for happy holiday season as consumers get their shopping in before the government stimulus runs out (apparently people tend to buy cars as Christmas gifts! I need to meet these people!).
But this exposes the economy to the risk of some serious post-holiday blues. Sure retailers will run beat the VAT rise promotions, but it's not hard to image households saving more as unemployment peaks in the first half next year.
The rising risk of a double dip is clearly on the Chancellor's and the Governor's minds. And that's a good thing.
We shouldn't get carried away with any positive news that comes out of tomorrow's GDP numbers. All they really tell us is what's already happened, not what risks could lie ahead.