Great news on Q2 GDP, manufacturing is right at the heart of a building UK recovery. While politicians from both sides are claiming credit for the result, commentators have been quick to hose down expectations, suggesting this may be as good as it gets this year at least.
Before we get carried away we should cast an eye over what's coming over the horizon. Felicity's noted the difficulty of government spending sustaining any support to the recovery - both directly and as a customer for the construction sector (a particular boost to today's figures). There's also a lot of uncertainty coming from our European neighbours. So the second half outlook and beyond is a lot more patchy.
European bank stress tests out tonight could be a key one for further developing a view on European sovereign debt risks. One scenario examined includes some kind of additional sovereign debt shock - the test results may say something about banks' exposure to this kind of risk. Chat on the radio this morning said the tests - and reporting of their results - were a tough one to get right; if the tests fail too many banks, there could be a panic but not enough and they'll be seen as not credible.