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Heat is turned up in Copenhagen

Susanne Baker December 11, 2009 13:50

As predicted, another draft text has surfaced - this one has been drafted by the UN itself.

Michael Zammit Cutajar, chair of the Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action, this morning released a UN draft text for COP15. This is particularly significant as the group has been tasked to set the future direction for collective action on climate change. Here's the text, which has already been published by the Washington Post. It has condensed "the brick" - the 180 pages of negotiating text - to a much more focused six page document. It is one of two tracks of work, with the other focusing on updating the Kyoto Protocol.  

Unsurprisingly, the Cutajar text contains lots of brackets - things still to be decided. Should global average temperatures be kept to 2 degrees centigrade or 1.5? Should the aim be to cut emissions by 50 percent by 2050 or 85 or even as much as 95 percent? And how much of this should the developed countries shoulder?

In its current guise, it encourages developing countries to also take collective action to cut their own emissions - by at least 25-40 percent by 2050. But this is significantly less than then 75-95 percent reduction developed countries are expected to cut emissions by in the same time period. For both the developed and developing world, the current targets that have been pledged fall short on the proposals set out in Cutajar's paper.

It also foresees a significant future role for market mechanisms, cooperative sector approaches and measures to reduce emissions from aviation and shipping activities - but the text suggests that the detail of this will be worked out after Copenhagen has concluded.

The final key negotiating bloc - the small islands - also published their proposals this morning. The group have proved to be extremely vocal proponents of a strong treaty in the opening week of the talks and are pushing for deep cuts in emissions by both the developed world and major emerging economies.

Both Yvo de Boer, UNFCCC Executive Secretary, and Connie Hedegaard, COP president, have cancelled public meetings today. Some veteran observers say this suggests things are hotting up.

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