...the end of the recession that is.
the beginning of the month generally brings a run of new data releases and most this month have been a bit punchier than expected. Earlier in the week we blogged on the first signs of expansion in manufacturing activity since last April. And today's industrial production figures suggest the PMI data may not have been an aberration. According to National Statistics manufacturing output increased in June and the three month on three month contraction eased to just 0.2% from 1.2% in May.
Elsewhere, activity has also picked up in the service sector. Today's PMI index bounced back to an above consensus 53.2. Taken together some analysts are calling an end to the recession.
Perhaps. But the risks - and there are many of them, remain on the downside. The manufacturing numbers have been buoyed by rapid destocking and the fact that Sterling has been on the side of UK exporters in recent months. A pick up in new orders has got to be encouraging - but evidence of a real recovery in global demand is still lacking.
Another downside from both surveys released this week was the employment components. In both manufacturing and services there is little sign that the pace of job cuts is easing. Which raises questions about if and when a pick up in domestic demand will gain any traction.
Quite a bit for the MPC to mull over.