It was chaotic last night. Up until 11pm six different versions of the Copenhagen Accord were circulating, no one knew which followed which, if the deal was getting weaker or stronger. Then a press conference was announced by the European Commission, and then it was cancelled as it become apparent that the world would not necessarily support the document. Hours and hours of debate stretched into the night. But somehow, at around 10am today, a political deal was finally struck.
And here it is. For those of you who do not have an inclination to read it here are its main points of interest:
• Global temperature increases should be kept below 2 degrees C and deep but unspecified cuts in global emissions are required to achieve this. Emissions should peak "as soon as possible", though no time period is specified.
• Developed countries should file their emission reduction pledges for 2020 by the end of January 2010. How much is up to them.
• Developing countries should also take action to reduce emissions.
• The document discusses "various approaches, including opportunities to use markets" to promote cost-effective emission reductions. That keeps the door open for carbon trading, including taxes or cap and trade schemes for international aviation and shipping.
• There are promises of big new flows of money from rich to poor countries to help them adapt to climate change and reduce their emissions. There will, it says, be new and additional fast track funding "approaching" $30 bn over the period 2010-12. In the longer term, developed countries "commit to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 bn a year by 2020 to address the [climate change related] needs of developing countries." But this funding depends on those developing countries taking "meaningful" actions to reduce their emissions, and "transparency on implementation" - i.e. showing that they are delivering these reductions.
• A new 'Technology Mechanism' will accelerate technology development and transfer from developed to developing nations, to help them adapt to climate change and reduce emissions. Very little is said about either the fund or the mechanism.
• There will be a review of the implementation of the accord in 2015. This will include considering strengthening the long-term goal of the accord and the convention: preventing a dangerous rise in global temperatures "including in relation to temperature rises of 1.5 degrees C."
• Tables at the end of the document list emission reduction pledges made by developed countries and those made by developing countries.
It will take time to really understand what this means for business. The Copenhagen Accord is accompanied by the outcome papers from the Kyoto Protocol work stream and the long-term cooperative work stream and tens of other documents which will need to be studied in order to really assess in detail what happened in those frantic last days of the talks.
Personally, on the basis of the content of the Accord, part of me is disappointed. Over the course of the two weeks those of us at the talks have seen clarity gradually slipping away as time has progressed. The final Accord provides little in the way of certainty and this will hamper the Government’s plans for a transition to a low-carbon economy. Manufacturers provide, and will provide, many of the low-carbon solutions that a low-carbon economy will need in order to flourish. A legally binding deal would have given industry the certainty to invest in low-carbon technology.
More worryingly, the Accord still leaves British industry still exposed to the risk of carbon leakage. The European Commissions is now due to review the EU Emissions Trading System in light of the outcome of Copenhagen. It is vital that the EU continues to recognise that the threat of carbon leakage has not diminished following Copenhagen. There simply is not enough evidence of comparable effort elsewhere in the world to impose even stricter targets upon industry.
But there is an additional angle. The expectations on Obama were great, but the truth is he had very little room for manoeuvre. In 1997 when the Kyoto Agreement was first forged then US president Bill Clinton failed to get it ratified through the Senate. In fact it lost by a vote 95-0 against. It was never going to approve anything which limited US productivity while China could grow unabated. Today, Obama is fighting to get his Bill through the Senate. It needs 60 votes to get through and it has about 42 at present. Obama was sticking his neck out to pledge even a 17% cut. And now he now has a document to show the Senate which says, look China is committing to action too.
The document signals that the major actors are now engaged on this agenda. India and China while not curtailing their growth have agreed to take steps to moderate its associated emissions. The US for the first time has attempted in some way to internationalise a commitment to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The UN is now aiming to transform the Copenhagen Accord into a legally-binding instrument at the next Conference of the Parties in Mexico in the latter half of next year. Whether you believe the science or not (or believe that the UN will be successful this its Mexico aim) the outcome from Copenhagen shows the agenda is far from dead.