EEF blog

The Bank of England revised its central forecasts for GDP growth to 2.1% in 2010 and 4.0% in 2010, a much stronger outlook for growth than the 1.9% and 3.0%, respectively, expected in August. The BoE expects inflation to exceed its 2.0% target by mid-2011, which suggests interest rates could rise by 0.5 percentage points by mid 2010.

Claimant count unemployment rose by 12.9k in October, the smallest rise since April 2008. The more comprehensive ILO measure of unemployment was unchanged at 7.8% in September.

Average earnings growth continued to be volatile, falling to 1.2% across the economy, but rising to 1.4% in manufacturing.

The RICS house price survey headline balance rose to 34.2, the highest balance since December 2006.  The sales to stocks ratio, generally a good guide to future prices, rose for the 10^th consecutive month to 29.7, up from 29.0 in September.

The British Retail Consortium reported total retail sales rose by 5.9% year-on-year in October, a good sign of consumer confidence ahead of the Christmas sales season.

The UK trade deficit widened to £7.2bn in September, in part because of the net export effects of UK and continental car scrappage schemes.

The week ahead

Tuesday, 17^th:  Consumer Price Indices (October)
Wednesday 18^th:  MPC Minutes
Thursday 19^th: Public Sector Finances (October), Retail sales (October)