The electoral cycle is complicating the economic cycle.
Markets, worried just as much as we are about how the UK economy will fare in what's set to be a stormy 2010, are also worried about the prospect of a hung parliament or a minority government.
Any new government will need to set a credible plan to address the perilous state of public finances. But a hung parliament or a minority government will find it very difficult to push through the necessary tough reforms.
If that happens, we're worried that businesses and consumers will become extremely cautious about investment and spending, weakening economy. And the markets are worried that a weak government and economy will mean the tough choices are pushed back, worsening an already decaying fiscal position.
That means that sterling is being buffeted about by investors second guessing the outcome of the election and the growing tension between the renminbi and the dollar. And a volatile exchange rate prevents manufacturers from taking advantage of export opportunities in growing markets, reinforcing business caution and the weak economy.
Consequently, bond holders are starting to shy away from UK government bonds...what happens when the Monetary Policy Committee decides to unwind its quantitative easing programme, but can't find any buyers for UK gilts? Prices will fall and interest rates will rise...undermining the economy.
The market's belief that the UK economy is risky is self-reinforcing, helping the UK economy get off to a rocky start to 2010.
So, yes, the election is about the economy, stupid. But the economy is very much about the election as well.
ps In case you were wondering, there's absolutely no snow in Westminster. Must be all the hot air.