EEF comments on today's preliminary GDP data

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Ms Lee Hopley, Chief Economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, says: “The preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP was in line with expectations at 0.6%. This represents an acceleration in the pace of growth since the start of the year, primed by a surge in manufacturing production – which saw the biggest quarterly gain in six years. But as we’ve seen with more recent survey data, this doesn’t provide a good guide to future performance. While only the construction sector was exhibiting signs of pre-referendum jitters, more widespread signs of weaker demand expectations and flagging confidence means that this is likely to be as good as it gets for the UK economy – certainly for the rest of this year.”   

EEF’s recent post- EU referendum Survey showed:

  • A balance of 14% of manufacturers expect a decline in UK orders over the next 6 months
  • A balance of 12% expect a fall in EU orders over the next 6 months
  • Confidence about firm level performance and the UK economy in the next 12 months has tumbled
  • EEF has revised down its full year GDP forecast for 2016 to 1.7% from 1.9% (June).

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