Week in Review - 15th July, 2011

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↓ UK TradeThe seasonally adjusted deficit on trade in goods widened to £8.5bn in May, compared with £7.6bn in April. Although exports grew quickly and the value of exports hit a record level import growth outpaced this.
↓ InflationCPI inflation and RPI inflation fell in June, though both remain elevated, with CPI inflation at 4.2% and the RPI measure at 5.0%. The strongest downward pressure on CPI came from recreation and culture – partly as a result of early summer sales on electronic goods. Upward pressures came from food prices, which rose by 6.9% over the year, and fuel prices, which rose by 15.1%.
↑ Labour Market StatisticsThe number of people in employment rose by 50,000 in the three months to May, while the ILO measure of unemployment fell by 26,000. The ILO unemployment rate remained stable, at 7.7%. However, the Claimant Count measure of unemployment – which records the number of people claiming Job Seekers' Allowance – rose again to 1.5 million in June, up 24,500 since May. This pushed the claimant count rate up to 4.7%.
↑ EEF Pay SettlementsThe three-month average pay settlement was 2.5% in June and, following revisions to the data for May, has now been unchanged since April. The monthly average, however, crept up from 2.6% to 2.8%. In the three months to June, 16.7% of pay settlements were between 0.0 and 2.0%, up a little from the month earlier.
The week ahead
Wed 20th: MPC minutes
Thu 21st: Public Sector Finances; Retail Sales; Trends in Lending

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