Let's not call time on the manufacturing recovery just yet

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Today's Index of Production showed that manufacturing output grew by 1.3% in the last year, but fell by 1.5% April.

We shouldn't call time on the recovery just yet. There were several predictable and temporary factors that pulled activity lower in April. The manufacturing recovery remains on track, and considerably stronger than previous recoveries. More recent surveys also suggest that output and orders remain strong.

Figure 1: Output in manufacturing following the most recent recessions

(Index, first month of recovery = 100)

Source: ONS Index of Production, 2011


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