PMI at a twenty-month low. But for how long?

Subscribe to Campaigning blog feeds

Published

Today's PMI reached a twenty-month low, pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing growth. There were a few temporary factors, such as the recent slew of Bank Holidays, which may have caused the figure to be lower than it may otherwise have been. However, a large part of this has been caused by a slowdown in domestic orders, and the survey showed weaker export demand too.

So maybe this points to a slower recovery in the next few months. But it should be noted that the PMI is a relatively volatile index.

Figure 1: Manufacturing PMI in recovery (50 = no change)

Following the previous manufacturing recession it did not return to the above-50 level associated with expansion for six months, and even then failed to reach anything like the highs we have seen recently. What is similar, however, is that in both cases the index has fluctuated somewhat.

As Jeegar mentioned earlier, positive trends in recruitment held up, so there are reasons to think that the manufacturing recovery will do so too.

Author

This person has now left EEF. Please contact us on 0808 168 1874 or email us at enquiries@eef.org.uk if you have any questions.

Other articles from this author >
Online payments are not supported by your browser. Please choose an alternative browser or make payments through the 'Other payment options' on step 3.