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Autumn officially begins next week and for economists it will kick off with a day of manufacturing data. EEF will be publishing its third quarter Manufacturing Outlook survey and we'll get a host of information on the global picture, starting with European manufacturing PMIs on Monday morning.

The flash indicators for Europe provided few reasons to be cheerful about how activity is faring in the thrid quarter, with France, Germany and the eurozone PMIs still languishing well below the 50, no change mark. We should continue to see weakness across the bloc, which will inevitably be feeding into continued sluggish activity in the UK sector.

The ones to watch, however, will be those in the US and emerging markets. Further softening in these markets - which have been a decent source of growth for UK exporters - won't bode well for domestic data for the rest of the year.

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Chief Economist

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