Positive revisions add bright spot to troubled year

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Today' third release of GDP for the second quarter of 2012 brings more good news. The economy did not contract as much as previously thought. In fact, we have had positive surprises with each Q2 GDP release and this probably reflects the uncertainty that the Diamond jubilee and some pretty atrocious summer weather threw up over statistics.

Since the initial data release ONS have been able to use survey data and other administrative sources to revise their GDP estimates, thankfully they all contributed to upward revisions. The charts below show the consistent upward revisions to all output measures over the past couple of months.

Past data is also subject to revisions and in today's release there is more good news relating to growth last year. GDP in the second quarter of 2011 was revised up from a contraction of 0.1% to growth of 0.1% which brings GDP growth in 2011 to 0.9% up from the previous estimate of 0.8%.

Business and Manufacturing investment for 2012q2 were also revised up quite significantly.

These manufacturing investment stats provides a bright spot in current statistics. They show manufacturers are looking through the economic cycle and are investing despite current difficulties securing orders and the global uncertainty with which they are dealing.

From our perspective the government needs to capitalise on this and do all that it can to build further on this investment momentum in the coming months.


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