Manufacturing recovery - update

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Manufacturing surged in June, according to today's production figures from National Statistics. Output rose by 1.9% between May and June, taking the quarterly rate of growth across the sector to 0.7%. This was stronger than ONS's first estimate of 0.4% published a couple of weeks ago.

Index of production2010=100

Source National Statistics

The good news

  • Our recent Economic Prospects report highlighted the large degree of divergence between different manufacturing sub-sectors over the past couple of years. Today's release showed a statistical rarity will all parts of manufacturing growing in June. The last time this happened was in 1992.
  • In the three months to June the strongest performing sectors within manufacturing were pharmaceuticals (up 8.3%), electrical equipment (up 4.8%) and chemicals (up 2.2%). Only other transport has seen growth in each of the past four consecutive quarters.
  • For manufacturing as a whole, growth of 0.7% in the second quarter was the strongest seen since 2010q4.

The not so great news

  • Output is still 10% below the pre-recession peak of 2008q1. We need 15 more quarters of growth like the one we saw in q2 to get back to that level.

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Chief Economist

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