The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell once again in November, coming in at 2.1%. This is below the consensus forecast that CPI would remain at the 2.2% level of last month.
CPI has been on a downward trend since June, where it had peaked at a 14 month high. Since then we have seen CPI fall 0.8 percentage points over a period of five months to reach the lowest level of CPI growth since November 2009.
Over the past year, pressure from the basket of goods that make up CPI have not been consistent, as shown in the table below. However, downward pressure on prices outweighed the upward pressure.
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages, especially fruit
- Transport sector prices, especially motor fuels
- Housing and household services, most pressure coming from gas and electricity
- Recreation and culture, mainly from prices of games, toys and hobbies, and data processing equipment
We expect CPI to remain low in 2014 at 1.8%.