Sector forecasts: What's going up? What's going down?

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For 2013 we are forecasting the overall manufacturing sector to return to growth after contracting in 2012. We are expecting the sector to growth by a relatively modest 0.7% in this calendar year, an increase that will be supported by growth in most, but not all, manufacturing sub-sectors.

Our sector forecasts for 2013


ForecastWhat will impact growth in 2013?
Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals1.2% contraction

- volatile input costs

- challenges from generic competition

- public sector cutbacks

Metal Products0.4% growth- slower growth in the motor vehicles sector
Mechanical Equipment1.1% growth- continued demand for investment goods maintaining rate of growth
Electronics1.8% growth

- stronger consumer spending

- demand from emerging markets
Electrical Equipment0.9% growth- high growth in 2012 expected to turn into modest growth in 2013
Motor Vehicles3.4% growth- slowdown after strong demand in recent years- exposure to Europe will make things tough
Other Transport6.4% growth

- strong civil aviation order books

- likely to remain strongest sector in 2013
Food and Drink0.1% growth

- stronger consumer spending

- export demand hampered by exposure to Europe
Basic metals0.1% contraction

- subdued global demand

- margins under pressure

- overcapacity in Europe

Rubber and Plastics0.5% growth- slower growth in the motor vehicles sector
Non-metallic Mineral Products1.7% growth- continued weak demand from construction sector but some modest improvements

Next week I will take a more global look at economic indicators. I will look at what we can expect to see happen to growth in other economies, global trade and other key indicators for the manufacturing sector.


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