Week ahead 7 December

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The main focus this week will be the UK industrial production report

A manufacturing hat-trick in October?
The UK industrial production report for October is due Tuesday. The breakdown for September revealed that manufacturing output rose modestly for the second consecutive month. October’s report is likely to show manufacturing remained under pressure from the low crude oil price halting investment in the North Sea, and weak export demand flowing from slower growth in emerging markets including China.

Weaker demand likely weighed on exports
October’s UK foreign trade report is out Thursday. The deficit on the goods balance narrowed in September to £9.3 billion, the smallest in more than a year, thanks to a surge in exports and imports plunging. Manufactured exports gained ground on the back of rises in basic materials, and semi-and-finished-goods. Weaker demand from emerging markets likely kept a lid on exports in October.

Another year of record-low interest rates
Thursday also sees the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision and the minutes of the central bankers’ meeting. The BoE is widely expected to keep the Bank Rate at 0.5%, making 2015 the sixth consecutive calendar year of record-low interest rates. The minutes are unlikely to new guidance as to when the Bank Rate will start to rise: the next major event will be the quarterly update of the BoE’s inflation forecasts in February. The BoE’s latest forecasts suggest it will not start raising the Bank Rate until around mid-2016.

This week we will be blogging the industrial production, and foreign trade, reports.


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