Week ahead 20 July 2015

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The week ahead looks fairly quiet for manufacturing data. But there are a couple of events worth flagging.

When the minutes of a meeting are actually interesting…

The Bank of England will publish the minutes of its July meeting on Wednesday this week. Following the Governor’s speech last week - when he reminded everyone that interest rates would be going up in future – the minutes could give an indication of the balance of views on the MPC. Although this will just be a teaser ahead of the August Inflation report, when we get sight of the Bank’s updated forecasts on inflation and growth. We'll be giving our take on it later that day.

Still watching the global economy Part 1

Greece is no longer front page news (for now), but we’ll get some insight into the effects or otherwise of the negotiations on business activity and confidence in Europe with Friday’s Flash PMIs. The dial has been moving in a positive direction with manufacturing activity posting strong positive responses in the first six months of this year and all the major eurozone economies reporting growing manufacturing activity in June. Flash PMIs look set to signal continued recovery of the industrial sector, but it would be surprising if there weren’t some loss of momentum going into the second half of the year,

Still watching the global economy Part 2

Risks and challenges extend beyond the eurozone – China, commodity exporters, Russia etc.. Growth in world trade has slowed since the start of the year, in large part as result of weaker demand in emerging markets. Friday’s release of global trade date from the Dutch CPB is likely to show that this trend has continued through to the second quarter of 2015.

 

This week we’ll be blogging on

  • Suggested Summer reading for MPs as they head off for recess

  • A blog debut from EEF’s new Deputy Chief Economist

  • Changes to Vehicle Excise Duty – how’s it going to work

  • World trade – what’s happening?

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Chief Economist

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