Week ahead 27 July 2015

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The main focus for manufacturing in the week ahead will be the industry breakdown in the first estimate of U.K. GDP in the second quarter.

Economic growth likely picked up

U.K. real GDP growth probably accelerated in the three months to June. As political uncertainty typically prompts businesses and households to postpone major spending decisions, the Conservatives unexpectedly winning a majority in May’s general election likely unleashed pent-up demand. Also, the stronger real wage growth flowing from low inflation and higher nominal wages should have supported consumer spending. Yet the subdued recovery in the euro zone, renewed fears about Greece leaving the euro, and the pound strengthening against Europe’s single currency likely weighed on exports. The market consensus forecast is that U.K. real GDP rose 0.7% on a quarter-ago basis.

Still watching the global economy

The first estimate of second quarter U.S. economic growth is also out this week. The world’s largest economy likely bounced back because labour disputes at West Coast ports, which weighed heavily on the economy in the three months to March, had been resolved. The market consensus forecast is that the U.S. real GDP climbed 2.9% on an annualized rate.

This week we’ll be blogging on:

  • The first estimates of GDP for Q2 in the U.K. and the U.S.
  • The Dowling Review of business and university research collaborations
  • Devolution


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