Here’s a Monday morning look ahead at the data and events relating to UK manufacturing.
At 9.30 today, the UK manufacturing PMI will be published. Following the disappointing ONS data for manufacturing in Q2 2015, the PMI reading will provide a revealing signal about the momentum in the sector going into Q3.
Flash PMIs for France and Germany this month came on the weak side, both down from June readings. The flash Eurozone manufacturing PMI also dipped to 53.4 from 53.6, after a strong June, indicating a slowdown in growth for the UK’s largest export market. Still growth remains robust, especially considering that July saw the flaring up of the Greek crisis in the Eurozone.
Index of Production (IoP)
On Thursday the ONS will publish the IoP figures for June 2015. The GDP preliminary estimate published last week indicated a 0.3% contraction in manufacturing over Q2 2015. Given that output fell in April and May, this means that the manufacturing IoP will likely show a slight uptick – in the range of 0.2% – in June.
The GDP preliminary estimate also showed that the weakness in the manufacturing sector is relatively broad-based. Only the transport sectors – motor vehicles and aerospace – saw substantial growth in Q2.
BoE interest rate decision
This Thursday the BoE will for the first time release the minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee alongside the August Inflation Report. The August publication is widely anticipated given that the July minutes showed some growing dissent among MPC members and the Governor Mark Carney indicated that the first rate hike is likely to happen at the turn of the year.
Tue: Monthly briefing
Wed: Five things I’ve learned about manufacturing by Megha
Thu: MPC minutes
Fri: UK Infrastructure Authority one year on