Week ahead 29th June

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Here’s a Monday morning look ahead at the data and events relating to UK manufacturing.

Quarterly national accounts

Tomorrow will see the release of the quarterly national accounts data. GDP is likely to be confirmed at 0.3%, with consumption and investment contributing to growth while net trade remains a drag. We’ll blog about how the data stacks up against expectations tomorrow.

Manufacturing PMI

The first of every month brings with it the manufacturing PMI. This week we get the PMI for June, which will give us a complete picture for Q2. The data for April and May was softer than we saw in Q1 – and our own Q2 survey supports this picture of a slowdown in manufacturing growth – however, a slightly better picture in the Eurozone flash PMIs suggests there may be some upside risk.

Labour Productivity

Labour productivity data for the first quarter of 2015 will be released on Wednesday. This will give an indication of the extent to which the challenge of weak productivity that has faced the UK since the recession has continued. Recent signs of a pick-up in wages across the whole economy give some cause for optimism, but it’s worth noting that in 2014 Q4 whole economy output per hour was 1.7% below its pre-recession peak after years of stagnation.

Looking at the manufacturing sector, output per hour has been much stronger over the past few years, and is now 4.2% above pre-recession levels. However, there may be something of a softer picture in Q1 as strong employment growth has continued despite the slowing momentum in output.

Heathrow/Gatwick decision

Also on Wednesday a decision is likely to be announced by the Airports Commission as to which airport they favour for expansion. See our blog from last week on why manufacturers prefer Heathrow.

Upcoming blogs:

Monday: Investment Monitor

Tuesday: Has anything changed with the national accounts?

Wednesday: The Manufacturing PMI

Thursday: Monthly Economic Briefing

Friday: Exec Survey – six months

Author

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