Week ahead 16 November

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Here’s a Monday morning look ahead at the data and events relating to UK manufacturing.


Will inflation finally rise from the ashes?

Short answer is most likely not. The UK release on Tuesday is expected to show CPI inflation continuing to hover around the 0% mark. This month’s inflation rate is likely to be further pushed down by the ending of the 3 year phasing-in of university tuition fee hikes. We expect inflation to gradually pick up in the beginning of 2016 when base effects from low oil prices start dissipating.

We’re also in for the Eurozone inflation data release on Tuesday. Inflation in our largest trading partner is similarly expected to come on the weak side, reflecting the global nature of the disinflationary pressures from the collapse in world commodity prices. Eurozone inflation is expected to average around 0.1% in 2015. Tuesday’s inflation print along with the disappointing Q3 GDP data released last week are likely to prompt the ECB to step up its QE program.


Earnings data to give an insight on the gender pay gap

The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) provisional results for 2015 are released on Wednesday. The ASHE results are based on a fuller dataset than the standard Average Weekly Earnings figures which are regularly released by the ONS. The results should give us a good indication of the growth of earnings for the financial year ending 2015, and interestingly, a valuable insight into how the gender pay gap has progressed.


Innovation Friday

Friday is a big day for innovation specialists with the release of the annual Business Expenditure on Research & Development survey. The results will give us an idea of the level of expenditure that businesses spent on R&D in 2014, as well as detailed sector breakdowns, including for the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing leads the way on R&D spending, accounting for almost 70% of the total in 2013.


Upcoming blogs:

We have a full schedule of Spending Review themed blogs this week.


Monday: Spending Review Round Up by Lee Hopley

Tuesday: Manufacturers’ views on Business Rates by Chris Richards

Wednesday: Manufacturers’ views on the Apprenticeship Levy by Verity O’Keefe

Thursday: Manufacturers’ views on Devolution by Chris Richards

Friday: Business expenditure on innovation by Felicity Burch


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