Week ahead 26 October

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The main focus this week will be the UK third quarter GDP report

UK economic growth likely eased

The preliminary estimate of UK GDP in the three months to September is due Tuesday. Partial indicators of economic activity over the period, including our manufacturing outlook survey, suggest that the pace of economic growth eased in the third quarter from 0.7% in the three months to June. We will be closely watching the breakdown by industry to see if manufacturing contracted for a third consecutive quarter. Manufacturers faced tough conditions during the period as the crude oil price remained low, and exports were under pressure from the weak economic recovery in the euro zone, slower growth in emerging markets, and the strength of the pound against major currencies.

Industrial confidence under pressure

The European Commission’s industrial confidence index for the UK in October is out Thursday. The index fell to -4.1 in September, the lowest in more than two years, from -1.1 in the previous month. The challenging environment facing manufacturers, particularly the negative impact of the low crude oil price on demand for mechanical equipment, and subdued demand for exports, likely continued to weigh on confidence in October.

A good read for economists

The 2015 edition of the UK’s National Accounts, also known as The Blue Book, is out Friday. The publication is a compilation of economic and financial statistics and information, which is used by officials to support the formulation and monitoring of policies.

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