Manufacturing production likely remained weak
The UK industrial production report for November is due Tuesday. The breakdown for October revealed that manufacturing output fell modestly following gains in the previous two months. November’s report is likely to show manufacturing remained under pressure from the low crude oil price halting investment in the North Sea, and weak export demand flowing from slower growth in emerging markets including China.
UK central bank set to sit tight
The Bank of England’s monetary policy decision, and the minutes of the policymakers’ meeting, are out Thursday. We expect the BoE will keep its main refinancing rate at 0.5%. The recent volatility of global financial markets triggered by China, along with the Brent crude oil price falling below $35 per barrel, suggests the UK central bank will start to raise rates later rather than sooner. The next key signpost will be the quarterly update of the BoE’s inflation forecasts in early February.
This week our blogs will dive deeper into the results of our Executive Survey for 2016.