This week sees the release of both the Index of Production and UK trade figures for September; two key indicators of the performance of the economy three months on from the EU Referendum.
Index of Production
The Index of Production is set to be released on Tuesday by the ONS.
Following on from the 0.2% increase in manufacturing output between July 2016 and August 2016, we expect to see a moderate increase of 0.5% in September, in line with the latest GDP figures which saw the manufacturing sector contract by 1% in Q3 2016. As we said at the time, these figures should not be seen as a post Brexit collapse, but rather the manufacturing sector sliding back following a remarkable Q2 which saw output expand by 1.7%. This is of particular relevance to the pharmaceuticals sector which we anticipate to experience the greatest downward pressure on output. Despite this unwinding we expect manufacturing to grow slightly over 2016 as a whole.
Wednesday will see the release of UK trade figures for September. We are expecting to see a further month of rising manufacturing exports. Brightening demand conditions in international markets illustrated through strong manufacturing PMIs across Europe are expected to boost export demand. So far we do not believe the rise in exports is a result of the large and sustained depreciation of the pound, but this effect is likely to kick in over the coming months.