October Monthly Briefing

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Key data releases over the past month indicate GDP is stronger than previously estimated in 2016q2 and confidence continued to recover in September.            


Data round-up

  • GDP growth was revised up by 0.1pp to 0.7% in the second quarter of 2016.
  • Manufacturing workforce increased for the 3rd quarter in a row, up by 13,000 in 2016q2.
  • Confidence continued to recover in September after being hit hard in the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum.



Business sentiment continued to recover in September

Manufacturing PMI printed stronger than expected, leaping to 26-month high 55.4 in September. Along with the 53.4 print in August, this more than offset the sharp deterioration in confidence the sector experienced in the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum. The pickup was widespread across all sub-sectors, with output and new orders improving significantly. In addition to the weak exchange rate, export orders also benefited from the global recovery in manufacturing sentiment.


Construction PMI showed similar improvement, edging up to 52.3 in September and recovering from pre-referendum contraction. By contrast, the services PMI eased slightly in September to 52.6, back to pre-Brexit levels.



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