Week ahead 26 September

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We will be keeping an eye out for the following releases in the week ahead:

 

Manufacturing investment in the run up to the EU referendum

On Friday, the third and final estimate of UK GDP for Q2 2016 will be released. There won’t be much new to see in terms of output growth with the data likely to confirm the UK economy expanded by 0.6% in the second quarter of the year. Of more interest will be the manufacturing investment figures for the same quarter. In Q1 2016, manufacturing investment increased by 4.5% after a poor 2015 that saw four consecutive quarters of contraction. The Q2 data will help us gauge the degree of confidence in the sector to push through with their capital expenditure plans in the run up to the EU referendum.

 

First post-referendum data point on UK services

The services industry accounts for about 78% of UK GDP. It’s only natural then that all eyes will be on the first index of services release in the post-referendum period. The data will capture July 2016 and if the PMI for the same month is any indication we’re in for a considerable contraction. However, looking at the same dataset, this contraction is likely to prove temporary with the PMI jumping back up to 52.9 in August from the 88 month low of 47.4 in July.

 

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