PMIs out this week
This week, we will have final PMIs for manufacturing, services and construction. This will give a taste of the UK's economic performance in the opening quarter of 2017. Manufacturing PMI released this morning showed the sector's momentum continued into the first three months of 2017. The strength is not broad-based however, with growth moderating in consumer-facing sectors as a result of higher inflation and subdued wage growth. The Services' PMI released on Wednesday will give a better sense of the slowdown in consumer spending.
Production and trade on Friday
Industrial production and trade data are to be released on Friday. In January, manufacturing output contracted by 0.9% compared to December 2016, but this was largely explained by the performance of the erratic pharmaceutical sector. We expect this month's figures to offset January's contraction, in line with healthy conditions in our Manufacturing Outlook and strong PMIs over the first months of 2017.