Week ahead 4th December

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Get excited, q4 results of our Manufacturing Outlook survey are out!

Let’s see what else the week is offering us.

Construction and service PMI after a buoyant manufacturing result

On Friday Manufacturing PMI peaked at 58.2 which was the best performance in over four years. Manufacturers, as we wrote few days ago, feel optimistic about their future thanks to strong new orders in particular from outside the UK. Manufacturing PMI records are also registered across Europe and the rest of the world with the global manufacturing PMI accelerating to an 80 month high.

Today will be the turn of construction. The sector struggled in these last few months and even if the latest month results were slightly positive (50.8), shadows are lurking over the sector.

The next day the focus will be on services. Last month, the PMI index registered the highest level recorded in the last 6 months (55.6) which is however below the record levels registered between 2013 and 2015. The sector still appears resilient, but uncertainties over the future have mined some of the certainties of UK biggest sector.

Trade, construction and IoP

The end of the week will be characterised by the so called short-term statistics.

On Friday we will see if any sign of the J-curve are back or if imports are still running fast.

On the same day, it will also be the turn of construction data which, as said above, may still struggle to get back on track.

Last but not least, the index of production will give us some indication where the extremely positive manufacturing momentum reported in the survey data, is backed up by the hard data. The sector has registered a continuous growth in the last 5 months when considering month on month differences and in the last 18 months when the comparison is made against the same month in the previous year. Our Manufacturing Outlook seems to confirm that the expansion may not be over yet.

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