Week Ahead 20 February

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2nd estimate of GDP

On Wednesday, the ONS will release the second estimate of GDP for the final quarter of 2016 as well as for the year as a whole. The first estimate of GDP growth showed that the UK economy expanded at a solid 0.6% in the three months to December, with annual growth for 2016 as a whole coming in at 2.0%. Yet industrial production, and manufacturing output in particular, was significantly upgraded since the first estimate. It is now thought to have increased by 1.2% in the final quarter, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous estimate. If the outlook for the services sector remains unchanged, GDP figures could be revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in 2016q4.

Business investment

Data for business investment covering the three months from October to December 2016 will also be released on Wednesday. In the three months to September, business investment posted positive growth for the second quarter in a row, growing by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter. How has this performance been sustained in the final quarter of the year?


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