Week ahead 27th March

Subscribe to Campaigning blog feeds

Published

A momentous week ahead with the triggering of Article 50, as well as the third and final GDP estimate for the final quarter of 2016.

 

Q4 GDP third estimate

On Friday the ONS will release its third estimate for Q4 GDP. While this tells us little about how the economy is performing now (these figures are now almost three months old) it is still a telling indicator of any momentum that may have been carried over into 2017. After the first estimate of 0.6% GDP growth, this figure was revised up to a healthy 0.7% on the back of better than expected industrial and construction output. We expect Q4 growth to be confirmed at 0.7% this time round, although there is an outside chance of a revision up to 0.8%.

 

Article 50 Triggered

On Wednesday Theresa May will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, thereby formally declaring the UK’s intentions to leave the European Union and thus allowing the complex negotiations of the UK’s exit to commence. Under the treaty exit negotiations should take no longer than 2 years so in theory the UK should have left the EU by April 2019. However with very little known about the government’s approach to negotiations, as well as some proposing the notion of a transitional period for the UK, many believe that the process could take a lot longer.

 

 

Author

Economist

Other articles from this author >
industrial-strategy-has-landed Industrial Strategy

EEF has long called for the creation of an industrial strategy and now that one is here we are determined to make it a success for the sector.

Read more >
MOTH spotlight Listen to 'Manufacturing on the hop'

Get the latest on the state of the manufacturing industry in this regular podcast with EEF Chief Economist Lee Hopley.

Listen now>
reading-cactus
Things we read in April 2018

26 Apr 2018

The 9 must-read stories that caught our eye in April.

Online payments are not supported by your browser. Please choose an alternative browser or make payments through the 'Other payment options' on step 3.