Week ahead 22nd May

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After an eventful week, in which we had inflation and labour market data, as well as various party manifesto releases, this one promises to be a little quieter. There is however one data release which we will be keeping a close eye on – the second estimate of GDP which comes out on Thursday.

GDP 2nd Estimate

The first estimate of GDP came in at a slightly disappointing 0.3% (down from 0.7% for the final quarter of 2016). This fall mainly reflected a slowdown in consumer spending, as the well documented rise in inflation began to hit consumers’ pockets. Manufacturing held up well however, expanding by 0.5% after impressive growth through the back end of 2016.

Shortly after the first estimate, the Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report was published. This showed that the MPC expects a small upwards revision in the Q1 data to 0.4%. However given that March’s industrial production and construction output was weaker than what the ONS had factored into its first estimate (manufacturing was revised down to 0.3%), a revision down to 0.2% for Q1 is not out of the question.



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