GDP 2nd estimate including the all important business investment numbers, budget 2018 and the Industrial Strategy white paper... Our preview of the busy week ahead.
Industrial Strategy White Paper... sometime this week
It is been 16 months now since the Industrial Strategy was first mooted, 10 months since the green paper was published... The Industrial Strategy White Paper is imminent. Read Chris's preview here.
Budget 2018 on Wednesday
On 22nd November, Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will deliver his 2nd Budget Statement this year. The last Budget in March was a balanced statement with the Chancellor opting to keep his fiscal headroom, rather than go on a pre-emptive Brexit containment splurge.
While the UK's productivity puzzle remain unresolved, weighing severely on wage growth and causing a protracted squeeze on households' incomes, Autumn Budget is an opportunity not to be missed to reverse this trend. In particular, manufacturers want to see strong policy actions to propel business investment and innovation.
GDP 2nd estimate and business investment
On Thursday, the ONS will release the second estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter of 2017. We do not expect major revisions to GDP growth figures. Economic growth surpassed expectations this quarter, coming in at +0.4% for the three-month period between July and September.
But Thursday's release will provide an important insight on business investment. Investment intentions have kept up so far this year, as companies faced a surge in orders particularly from their overseas clients. They remain cautious however, as Brexit uncertainty is still on companies' minds. Our 2017/18 Investment Monitor released last month showed that companies were more or less split down the middle on their plans for the next two years. Thursday's figures will provide further indications on businesses' reaction to Brexit so far.