After the excitement of last week – namely interest rates rising for the first time in 10 years(!) – this week we get a look at production and trade data for the month of September. The ONS will publish both of these data points on Friday.
While this is usually a much anticipated release, the first estimate of q3 GDP out a couple of weeks ago has taken the gloss off the release a tad, as we have a fairly good idea what to expect. The ONS’s estimate built into the GDP figures had manufacturing expanding by 0.5% in September, and 1% overall for the third quarter. This is a noticeable pick up form the weak performance q2. With last week’s manufacturing PMI also coming in at a strong 56.3, we have no reason to believe there will be significant deviations, and expect a similar reading in the production figures.
Together with manufacturing production, we will get data on the UK’s trade performance on Friday. Healthy global conditions, noticeably in the eurozone and US, as well as sterling’s depreciation has been boosting exports, which were up 12% in August compared to the same month a year ago. Despite this, as we highlighted last week, imports are rising just as fast as the flipside of the sterling depreciation on import prices takes effect. Consequentially the UK’s trade in goods balance has remained broadly unchanged.