On Tuesday, the ONS will release CPI and PPI data for September. Consumer price inflation increased steadily over the past year as a result of upward pressures on prices from the sterling depreciation in the aftermath of the Brexit vote and the recovery in oil and commodity prices from their low levels in 2016. While the former has likely passed its peak, the upsurge in petrol prices in September - which increased by 2.2% year-on-year, will provide some upward pull on CPI figures this month.
Employment and Wages
This week will also mark the release of employment and wage data for August. We have been watching closely developments in real wages in the past few months. Upward pressures on pay are high and increasing, but manufacturers have been shrugging off these pressures so far this year. We see no reason why this trend will go into reverse in August.