Week Ahead 11 September

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It is the usual price-employment set of data releases this week.

 

What next for consumer price inflation?

After a steady rise over the course of last year - driven by the sterling depreciation in the aftermath of the EU referendum and the boost to oil and commodities prices from their previous lows, the upward trend in inflation came to an end in the past couple of months. This reflected the waning contribution from the energy component of inflation, while the pass through of the sterling depreciation to consumer prices moderated from its peak earlier this year.

With the sterling exchange rate depreciating further in the aftermath of the snap election, EEF's Manufacturing Outlook indicated that upward pressures were in the pipeline again for the third quarter of the year as companies pass through the further depreciation to their consumers. This month's inflation will indicate how large this pass through is.

Will wages start to grow this month?

If you are a regular reader of the blog, you know that we are puzzled by wage growth both in the manufacturing sector as well as in the whole economy. While upward pressures on pay have been important and increasing, we have seen no pickup in wages and the trend is unlikely to reverse any time soon. We expect the subdued pace in wage growth to continue, weighing down on real incomes.

Author

Economist

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Week ahead 25th September

25 Sep 2017

A look at the key data releases this week.

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