After a very quiet week on the data front last week, this week, along with the fallout from Germany’s election result, and the Labour party conference, we have two stand out releases which we will be keeping an eye on – business investment and monthly services output for July.
On Friday the ONS will release its third estimate of GDP for 2017q2. We do not expect any changes from the 0.3% reported in the previous two estimates, and therefore our attention turns to the revised business investment statistics for q2. Business investment, and its future profile has provoked much debate amongst economists – which some significant divergence in forecasts, dependent on a number of factors, Brexit negotiations being chief amongst these. This time we do not expect any change from the rather disappointing flat growth recorded in the initial estimate.
Friday will also see the release of services output data for July. This will provide us our first indication of what GDP growth for the third quarter of the year could be, and is likely to be an important influence on the Bank of England when they next meet to set interest rates (scheduled for November 2nd).