Last week was characterised by our Manufacturing Outlook for the last quarter of 2018 and November PMI data which showed a mixed bag of results – bouncing back but subdued manufacturing, positive construction, and worryingly low services.
Let’s see what this week has to offer.
GDP and all its components
Today, the ONS will have its GDP “showdown” with the monthly estimate for October.
Looking at PMIs and at the last two monthly releases reporting a 0% growth, October does not look great as well and another weak reading is expected.
Manufacturing PMI was particularly down in October at 51.1, but since then it got back at 53.1, a level similar to the one registered in September. It will be interesting to check if the weakness reported in the PMI number will also be reflected in the ONS data.
As reported in our latest Manufacturing Outlook, the sector is continuing its downward trending path while still reporting positive balances for both orders and output.
Together with manufacturing, we will also see if construction activity will continue its revival and how the service sector was able to cope with retail sales trending down since the end of the hot summer.
On Tuesday, the ONS will instead release statistics on the labour market.
The three months to September registered a very small pick-up in unemployment at 4.1% from 4.0%. The indicator is still way below its long-term average and actually very close to its historical minimum.
More interesting will be the story around wages. Those in manufacturing have seen a stabilisation in the last few releases with an annual growth at 2.3%. On the other hand, salaries for the whole economy are still trending up and they reached a 3.2% growth in September, the fastest growth in a decade.
Today you will also find the last Manufacturing Outlook blog for this edition. This time will be about our prediction for the UK economy.