Week ahead 17th December | EEF

Week ahead 17th December

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It’s almost Christmas time!

If you are ready to go on holiday, data releases are also ready to do so.

After two quiet days, the last three days of the week will give us indication on several different topics.


Prices on Wednesday

On Wednesday, the focus will be prices. CPI has stabilised in October at annual rate of 2.4% and it should continue its downward trend in November.

A flat monthly CPI would actually bring the annual figure down to the “magic” 2% Bank of England target. However this eventuality looks unlikely, but we may see the target hit in December.

Looking at producer prices, these should also come down. Considering the recent sharp drop of oil prices, November input PPI should plummet from the 10% registered a month ago to a level closer to gate factory PPI which was 3.3% in October.

 

Retail sales and Bank of England MPC

The next day will be the turn of retail sales and it will be interesting to check if this year “Black Friday” was able to give a boost to consumer spending after a few not too positive releases.

On Thursday, the Bank of England will meet and decide on interest rates. No change is expected with markets betting on a 9-0 decision.

 

GDP details

Friday will close the three days of data publications with the final GDP release for the third quarter of the year. We already know that GDP grew by 0.6% thanks to consumer spending and despite a contracting business investment. This final release will tell us if these figures are confirmed and show some new interesting data.

In particular we will find out if inventories for manufacturers have gone up substantially and how manufacturing business investment performed after the massive 4.2% in the quarter.

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