Week ahead 12th February

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After the excitement last week of the Bank’s monetary policy decision, as well as final trade and production data for 2017, we have a slightly quieter week, with only one key data point out this time round – inflation.

Inflation

On Tuesday the ONS will release inflation data for January. In December the 12-month Consumer Price Index fell from 3.1% to 3.0%. Many believed at the time that this signalled that the peak in inflation was behind us, as the sterling depreciation - which was predominantly behind the rise in prices - had become exhausted. However with commodity prices, and in particular oil prices, expected to pick-up over the coming year, as well as domestic cost pressures (wages) also finally expected to firm on the back of the strong labour market, we may not be over the peak just yet. Indeed last week the Governor of the Bank of England noted in his press conference that prices could rise above the 3% mark again this year. That said we do not envisage these effects being felt this month, and are expecting CPI to decelerate further tomorrow.

Author

Economist

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