Week Ahead 8th January

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The second week of the year is offering us the so called “short-term” statistics from the ONS and one of our surveys.

Hurry up! The results are already out!

Get excited! Today we have published our Executive Survey! You can find the results here.

Construction, manufacturing, and international trade

On Wednesday the Office for National Statistics will publish its short-term statistics data for November.

After a great start of the year, construction output, measured with the less volatile three-month on three-month time series, has declined for six months in a row. October registered the worst result since September 2012 and even though PMI construction results were slightly positive (in particular the one regarding civil engineering), the contraction period may not be over yet.

The situation for manufacturing output cannot be more different compared to the one construction is experiencing. As we have said several times, a strong global demand, a revival of investment spending, and the help given by a weak currency are boosting the sector to have constant growth. Manufacturing output expanded for the last 19 months when annual growth is taken into consideration and in the last 6 months when month-on-month growth is used.

The same release will also include November data for international trade. Since October 2016, the trade deficit shrunk majorly thanks to services, which continues to run a healthy surplus compared to a huge deficit experienced in the goods market. We will see if the trend will continue and if trade will become a net contributor to GDP growth in 2018.

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