Things quieten down somewhat on the data front this week, with just revision to full year business investment – including for manufacturing – and the final estimate of 2017q4 GDP out on Thursday.
Last week we learned that inflation was falling and the labour market was still in good shape. No surprises, and nothing to convince the majority of MPC members that conditions had deviated sufficiently from their expectations in the February Inflation report to warrant an early rate rise.
At this point in the data cycle it is unlikely that there will be anything new to be gleaned from the revisions coming out this week. We know from previous estimates that GDP expanded by 0.4% in the final quarter of last year putting full year growth at 1.7%. Business investment flat lined at the end of the year, but growth in previous quarters meant a 2.2% year-on-year increase. Manufacturers’ pace of investment growth was a bit pacier, rising by 2% in the last three months of the year and by 4.6% in 2017 as a whole, reversing some of the drop in 2016.
We’ll be blogging on Thursday about our takeaways from the data.