The ONS’s new monthly GDP release schedule means we do now tend to get data points in fits and bursts. After inflation last week, this week is another fairly quiet one…however we will get final GDP data for q2 in the quarterly national accounts, and with that an interesting indicator which we are tracking.
UK quarterly accounts
On Friday we will get final quarterly data for q2, which will include manufacturing business investment data. We do not expect much news here, with GDP growth expected to be confirmed at 0.4% and manufacturing investment to be subdued.
We will however also get q2 data on inventory changes across the economy, and with that an indication on whether manufacturers are actually stockpiling goods – a subject which has garnered attention recently given the UK’s upcoming departure from the EU. Indeed recent months have seen swathes of news stories of pharmaceutical and food manufacturers in particular, being advised to stockpile products in the event of a no deal Brexit. Whether the q2 data will come too soon to confirm this (and whether indeed it is an industry wide trend) remains to be seen, but we will be keeping a close eye given the impact this could have to manufacturers’ business operations.
ICYMI: On Friday we released our new report ‘Why does manufacturing matter to the British public?’ Check out our short video and report here.