Week ahead 4th February | EEF

Week ahead 4th February

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Last week ended with two major “soft” data releases, the firsts for January.

Consumers continue to lack confidence with the Gfk index stable at the five-year low -14. Thursday’s release pointed out how British people are extremely worried about the economy, much more than they are worried about personal finances.

As expected, on Friday, manufacturing PMI was down from December’s 54.2. The index is still over the 50-point threshold but it appears than more and more production is related to stockpiling activities with orders instead in negative territory.

Let’s now see what this week is going to offer.

More PMI and Bank of England

Today, construction PMI will be the protagonist. The sector had a few up and downs last year but overall the sector should ended up the year with a little-less-than 1% growth. The sector is always on our radar considering how fundamental it is to several manufacturing sub-sectors such as non-metallic minerals, rubber and plastics, and metals.

On Tuesday, the three-day of PMI releases will finish with the one for the sector that has the biggest share of the UK economy – the service sector.

The index has been quite weak for a while and in December was hovering just over 51. We will see if 2019 has continued on a similar note.

 

On Thursday, all eyes will be on Threadneedle Street.

No changes are expected in terms of monetary policy with the MPC waiting – once again – for more clarity on Brexit.

However, it is “Super-Thursday”, so it won’t just be about the MPC decision and minutes, but also about their Inflation report which will be published with its deep analysis on the UK economy and the Bank forecasts.

Let the excitement begin!

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